Dollar holds firm as Middle East hostilities lift oil

The U.S. dollar remained resilient on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East drove up oil prices, reigniting worries about inflation. The move bolstered the dollar's reputation as a safe-haven asset, bolstered by climbing Treasury yields and heightened anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate increase. Although recent economic figures fell short of expectations, analysts cautioned that heightened Middle East tensions could offset any negative effects if the data remained disappointing.

The U.S. initiated airstrikes on Iran on Tuesday, triggering Iranian counterattacks in the most significant escalation in weeks. Oil prices jumped nearly 1% in early trade on Wednesday, with Brent futures rising 0.92% to $95.52 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surging 0.89% to $91.02.

Kumiko Ishikawa, a senior FX analyst at Sony Financial Group, emphasized the need for ongoing caution regarding the Middle East situation. The dollar index, which compares the greenback to a basket of currencies such as the yen and the euro, stood at 99.67. Economic data released overnight, including July JOLTS job openings and the August ISM manufacturing index, came in below forecasts.

Markets now anticipate a 67% probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, up from approximately 40% a week earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. August's job and consumer price inflation data are both scheduled for release before the Fed's meeting on September 15-16. A recent Reuters poll forecasted that employers added 56,000 jobs last month, matching the median estimate.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed strong backing for decisive monetary measures to counteract the yen's weakness during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BOJ governor conveyed hopes of discussing the economy's alignment with forecasts and inflation risks during the month's meeting.