Gold hits over 3-week low as Middle East tensions fan rate-hike fears

Gold experienced its lowest level in over three weeks on September 2, as tensions in the Middle East caused oil prices to surge and heightened concerns about inflation and the potential for interest rate hikes. The spot price of gold dropped by 0.6% to US$4,304.01 per ounce by 8:17am Singapore time, marking the lowest point since August 7.

Prices continued to decline for a fourth consecutive day and remained below the 200-day moving average, a significant technical indicator. US gold futures for December delivery also fell by 1%, settling at US$4,350.80.

Tensions escalated when the United States launched airstrikes against Iran on September 1, leading to Iranian retaliation. This marked the most serious escalation in weeks, driving up oil prices for the third straight session. Higher oil prices contribute to inflation concerns, which could lead to increased expectations of monetary policy tightening, negatively affecting gold's appeal as an inflation hedge.

Traders currently estimate a 67% chance of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's meeting in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed Governor Michael Barr suggested that if inflation does not cool quickly, the central bank may raise rates.

The upcoming ADP employment report and the more critical nonfarm payrolls data, set for September 4, will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for gold. If the figures are weaker than expected, it could help alleviate pressure on gold. However, stronger data or more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve may prolong the decline. Silver, platinum, and palladium also experienced declines, with spot silver down 1% to US$63.60 per ounce, platinum slipping 1% to US$1,722.23, and palladium falling 1.4% to US$1,292.21.