China’s falling emissions amid Iran war spark hope of decarbonisation watershed

China's emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide decreased in the second quarter of the year, according to analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) published by Carbon Brief. The drop was attributed to reduced oil consumption due to disruptions in shipping from the Middle East caused by the US-Iran war.

Overall, CO₂ emissions dropped by 1%, with oil usage falling 9% and transport emissions decreasing by 16%, based on assessments of Chinese government data. This marked the first time China's emissions have been driven down by lower oil consumption, as reported by CREA co-founder and lead analyst Lauri Myllyvyrta to AFP.

The ongoing conflict has significantly impacted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil shipments to China, the world's second-largest economy and top importer of crude. Despite this, China has managed the situation better than many experts anticipated. Myllyvirta suggested that the crisis has accelerated the adoption of electric fleets in industries such as construction and mining, where traditionally gas-guzzling vehicles have been used. These changes are expected to be long-lasting.

Historically, China's emissions reductions have been primarily due to decreased coal consumption. However, this quarter, the decrease was mainly driven by lower oil use. China aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and has already made strides towards this goal. In the first half of the year, emissions rose by 2% compared to the previous year, but they remained slightly lower than in the first half of 2021.

Additionally, it was announced that China's installed solar energy capacity had surpassed that of coal-fired power for the first time, indicating a rapid growth in renewable energy installations and a decline in coal's share in its energy mix.