As Le Pen eyes power, France’s divided moderates struggle to unite

As far-right candidate Marine Le Pen inches closer to power, France's political landscape remains divided and fragmented. France is set to make a monumental decision in the 2027 election, with the possibility of a far-right party winning power for the first time since World War II. Le Pen, the far-right leader, has a strong chance of winning the Elysee Palace for what appears to be her fourth attempt, thanks to the fractured political climate in France.

Over 30 candidates from various political backgrounds are competing for voters, making it difficult for traditional political forces to unite. President Emmanuel Macron, barred from running again after a decade in office, further weakens the center-right camp.

The "Macron effect" is believed to be responsible for the surge of candidates, as former President Francois Hollande's economic minister clinched a victory in 2017 without a major party's backing. Political scientists Remi Lefebvre and Emilie Zapalski attribute the proliferation of candidates to the hopes of a few to claim a share of the pie, despite the challenge of uniting the electorate. Macron's reshuffling of the political scene has blurred the traditional left-right divide, which has long defined French politics.

Polls suggest Le Pen is ahead in the first round with around 35 percent of the vote, with a high probability of a runoff victory. Despite her conviction on appeal for misappropriation of European Parliament funds, Le Pen remains poised to take power. Her main rival, Jean-Luc Melenchon, the hard-left leader of France Unbowed (LFI), may be better positioned to reach a run-off against Le Pen, according to some polls. Both candidates are currently enjoying strong support from the electorate.