유엔 “기온 상승 1.5도 이내 불가능” 첫 인정…“가장 암울한 보고서”

The United Nations has for the first time acknowledged that its goal of limiting global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels may be impossible to achieve. In a new strategy, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) proposed a shift from striving for a net-zero (0) increase in greenhouse gas emissions to a negative (negative) emissions scenario.

The climate change report "Limiting Overshoot," published by UNEP on February 2, indicated that the global temperature rise could exceed the 1.5-degree target within a few years, with the best-case scenario estimating a peak of 1.8 degrees Celsius and a worst-case scenario of 2.6 degrees Celsius. Even if each country maintains its current policies, the world's temperature would reach 1.8 degrees Celsius by mid-century.

Since the industrial revolution, global temperatures have already increased by around 1.4 degrees Celsius due to the burning of fossil fuels. Although the world has already surpassed the 1.5-degree target in terms of annual average temperatures in 2024, it is not considered to have exceeded the Paris Agreement's target when measured over a long-term average of 20 years.

While the UN has not abandoned the goal of achieving the 1.5-degree target, it has for the first time acknowledged that it is impossible and proposed that the goal needs to be "shifted." This involves countries not only achieving carbon neutrality but also transitioning to a state where their net emissions are negative. Currently, only a few countries, such as Finland, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark, have set targets to achieve carbon negativity before 2050.

UNEP's co-author, Richard Black from the UK Met Office and the University of Exeter, emphasized that countries with the greatest historical responsibility for climate change should make the greatest efforts. The report warned that more severe climate events could claim and injure more lives once the 1.5-degree threshold has been surpassed.

The head of the United Nations Environment Programme, Inger Andersen, emphasized that 1.5 degrees Celsius remains the goal, but it must now be approached from above.