More freedom, more order: The integration of migrants works better in countries where newcomers face fewer restrictions

In recent decades, global population aging, coupled with globalization, has led to a surge of migrants into developed nations. The United Nations reports that there are approximately 300 million migrants worldwide, double the number from 1990, with their share of the global population growing modestly from 2.9% to 3.7%. This influx has sparked anti-immigration sentiments, yet politicians often fail to curb the influx of migrants.

For instance, Donald Trump slightly reduced legal migration to the United States during his first term, while Italy, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has seen an increase in migrant arrivals, becoming the leading destination for illegal entries into Europe. Likewise, Russia fuels anti-immigration sentiment while attempting to replace post-Soviet laborers with migrants from other regions.

Migration is driven by the demand for labor, and as long as this demand persists, migration will continue to grow, with the International Organization for Migration forecasting over 400 million migrants worldwide by 2050. Effective management and integration of newcomers are crucial. However, measures aimed at restricting entry often yield results opposite to their intended goals.

For example, Sweden, the world's most migrant-friendly country, has higher crime rates among migrants compared to the native-born population, lower earnings, and poorer school performance. In contrast, Spain, with a similar migration share, has a smaller gap between migrants and the native population across all indicators, and migration has boosted GDP per capita.

Russia, despite being unwelcoming to newcomers, has a low MIPEX score, with migrants committing crimes less often than the native population and maintaining the same employment rate. Three factors significantly impact migration integration: access to the labor market, migration flow composition, and institutions' ability to prevent discrimination against newcomers.

Among these, access to the labor market plays the most critical role. Employment is a primary determinant of an individual's propensity to commit crime across all population groups. Unemployed individuals are more likely to engage in subsistence crimes, such as theft, squatting, or prostitution, and more likely to join criminal networks serving as alternative employment sources.

Unemployed people experience reduced crime rates on holidays compared to those employed. Around 60% of migrants worldwide move for work, and labor migrants typically have lower crime rates than the local population as a whole. Therefore, an influx of labor migrants can even reduce the overall per-capita crime rate. Crime rates among labor migrants generally are lower than among the local population.

This explains the low crime rate in Russia, where most migrants are labor migrants. Furthermore, allowing migrants to work legally enhances their integration. Comparing two waves of immigration to Britain illustrates this point. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, asylum seekers who were not allowed to work immediately saw an increase in property crime.

Conversely, following the accession of 10 new countries to the EU, migrants gained the right to work immediately, slightly reducing crime rates. Similar patterns can be observed in Italy, the UK, Canada, the U.S., Australia, Ireland, and New Zealand, where English-speaking countries and continental Europe have different migration integration outcomes.