Malaysian bonds trail peers in August on supply, rate-hike concerns

Malaysia's economy grew faster than initially estimated in Q2, sparking speculation of an interest rate hike. This led to Malaysian bonds performing the worst in Southeast Asia during August, according to the source. The yield on 10-year bonds surged 16 basis points last month, the highest in almost two years, compared to a modest decline of around 10 basis points in similar-dated bonds for Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore, as reported by Bloomberg.

The widening yield gap of 26 basis points is the largest since at least January 2020. This increase in yields can be attributed to concerns over the supply of long-dated notes, the risk of an interest-rate hike, and investor caution. Winson Phoon, head of fixed-income research at Maybank Securities in Singapore, noted that the persistent selling of Malaysian bonds has led to a "bear-steepened" yield curve, influenced by supply factors, including auctions of the 20- and 30-year bonds, concerns about Treasury duration, and the risk of policy rate normalization.

The ringgit swaps almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the central bank within the next year, just days after the economy's growth data was released. Despite the economy's strong performance, driven by a boom in semiconductor exports tied to AI expansion and strong domestic demand, the central bank has maintained its benchmark rate at 2.75% since cutting it a year ago.

Fesa Wibawa, an investment manager at Aberdeen Group, sees the recent selloff as mainly a result of supply, positioning, and relative-value adjustments, rather than a significant reassessment of Malaysia's economic outlook.