France's risk premium over Spain hits record high

Goldman Sachs gives a 68% probability that Marine Le Pen will be the next president of France. The cost of French government bonds with a 10-year maturity has risen to 4.23%, a maximum since 2008, amid global market tensions. This increase is more severe than in other countries, with the differential in cost between French and Spanish debt reaching a historic high of over 40 basis points.

Analysts at Barclays warn that the risk premium on French debt could exceed 100 basis points in the first half of 2027 if the presidential election leads to a runoff between two non-centrist candidates.