Keralam may witness early summer-like conditions this year as rain deficit set to widen further

Keralam is on track to experience summer-like weather conditions early this year due to a significant rainfall deficit. As the southwest monsoon season enters its final stretch, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted below-normal rainfall for September, marking a 22% shortfall compared to the average. This comes as the private weather forecasting agency Skymet has also downgraded its monsoon forecast to drought, projecting rainfall at just 85% of the Long Period Average.

Neetha K. Gopal, Director at IMD's Thiruvananthapuram office, stated that Kerala has already witnessed a 22% rainfall deficit during the first three-fourths of the monsoon season from June 1 to August 31. With little hope of a substantial rainfall revival, especially with isolated light showers in some pockets, the deficit is expected to widen by the end of September.

Factors such as the strengthening El Niño and weak India Ocean Dipole (IOD), both known to suppress monsoon activity, could further impact the upcoming northeast monsoon, though a definitive assessment remains premature. In contrast, conditions are favorable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Rajasthan and adjoining regions, setting the stage for its exit.

However, southern Keralam might still receive isolated heavy showers during the monsoon's retreat if weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal. Currently, eight out of Keralam's 14 districts are facing rainfall deficiencies, with Wayanad and Idukki districts seeing deficits of 51% and 44%, respectively. This stark contrast in rainfall is particularly concerning as these districts house a significant portion of Kerala's power-generating reservoirs, raising concerns about potential water and power shortages.

Keralam typically receives a substantial monsoon boost when westerly winds along the coast, bolstered by weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, trigger heavy rainfall. However, none of these crucial rain-enhancing factors are currently in place, leaving Keralam with limited prospects for a significant monsoon revival in the remaining weeks of the season.