In US vs Iran, all roads lead back to Hormuz

In a fresh development in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, the two nations traded military strikes for the first time in over a month, drawing attention back to the military aspect of the conflict. The US claimed it targeted two Iranian rocket launchers that were set to deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, leading Iran to retaliate against American fighter jets stationed at air bases in Jordan.

This latest escalation coincides with rising gasoline prices in the US during August, as well as the acknowledgment by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian of the economic hardships caused by US sanctions. The conflict's military and economic fronts remain closely linked, with neither side showing signs of backing down.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has vowed to unleash an "economic D-Day" to compel Iran back to negotiation tables, imposing sanctions on numerous Iran-linked entities and threatening to target any country, company, or bank engaging in trade with Tehran. However, enforcing these sanctions proves challenging, as Iran has been under multiple layers of sanctions for years and has proven adept at adapting to survive them.

Moreover, the US faces a significant hurdle in targeting countries that trade with Iran, particularly China. China accounts for up to 90% of Iran's oil imports and has threatened to retaliate if Chinese companies are included in the secondary sanctions. With US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping set to meet in Washington later this month for trade talks, Washington is unlikely to risk alienating Beijing, which holds considerable influence over critical minerals and manufacturing supply chains.

Furthermore, Iran's civilian leadership is also seeking a way out of the conflict. President Pezeshkian has repeatedly called for peace and even suggested that the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) benefits Tehran. However, the hardline Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) opposes major concessions and perceives compromise as weakness. The extent to which Pezeshkian can pursue a peaceful approach will depend on the IRGC.

In conclusion, the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran appears destined to continue, with sporadic military attacks and renewed threats of economic escalation dominating the scene. Until a durable agreement is reached on managing the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway will remain a flashpoint for both nations. The latest exchange underscores the fact that neither side is prepared to abandon their military options in the pursuit of resolving the conflict.