Fed’s Barr backs rate hike if inflation fails to cool, September odds hit 66%

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned on Tuesday that failure to curb inflation could lead to higher interest rates. In a statement at the Second Chance Lending Forum in Washington, Barr said, "If inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates." He added that policymakers could afford more time to adjust their stance if incoming data showed inflation moving toward the Fed's 2% target.

Barr emphasized that inflation remains too high, having been above the Fed's 2% target for over five years. The latest figures show prices rising 3.7% year-over-year, or 3.3% excluding food and energy. Barr's role as a Fed governor gives him a vote at every Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which convenes September 15-16. Traders were giving a roughly two-thirds chance of a rate increase at the upcoming meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Despite his concerns, Barr noted that consumer spending has been resilient and the job market is stable. He also highlighted investment in artificial intelligence technology as a driver of economic strength. Barr's comments echo those of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who spoke last week at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, saying the central bank must be confident inflation is moving toward its objective clearly and at sufficient speed.

The September meeting will be the first since Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that the FOMC may need to tighten monetary policy if core inflation remains elevated. Waller described policy as being at a crossroads, with core personal consumption expenditures inflation rising from 3% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May, driven by trade levies, higher energy costs, and strong demand from AI infrastructure investment.