Canadian Dollar: Trade tensions and extended BoC hold – TD Securities
TD Securities highlights asymmetric upside risk in USD/CAD as US–Canada trade tensions escalate.
TD Securities notes that escalating US-Canada trade tensions create asymmetric upside risk for USD/CAD, supporting a more extended Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hold. The CAD is viewed as a carry funding currency and TD Securities keeps a bearish bias towards the Canadian Dollar, forecasting a year-end USD/CAD rate of 1.39. The BoC rate hold may become more prolonged due to the setback in the trade deal, with little near-term catalysts to push USD/CAD below its 200-day simple moving average of 1.3840.
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