ANALYSIS: Five signs the ANC has given up on Joburg

The analysis highlights five signs indicating that the ANC has abandoned its efforts to win support in Johannesburg for the upcoming election on November 4th. Firstly, the ANC has not selected a mayoral candidate or formulated a strategy to rally its supporters behind. The party's current lineup includes three candidates: Reverend Frank Chikane, Loyiso Masuku, and incumbent Dada Morero, who recently gained national attention for insulting residents during a power outage discussion.

Secondly, ANC voters in Johannesburg have already decided against participating in the election by not registering. With 2.418 million registered voters representing 35.8% of Gauteng's total registered voters, it is evident that most of these potential ANC supporters have chosen to stay home. Opposition parties, such as the DA, are more motivated to both register and vote, leading to an inflated DA vote and a deflated ANC vote compared to national elections.

Thirdly, the ANC's decline in Johannesburg has been significant, falling from 68.6% in 2004 to 31.9% in 2024. This loss of support, equivalent to 36.7 percentage points, is a stark contrast to the party's past dominance.

Fourthly, the ongoing electricity failures have dealt a blow to the ANC's chances in Johannesburg. City Power's outages have worsened in August, with an 90% increase in logged failures compared to July. The prolonged duration of outages, averaging over nine days, has made the situation particularly challenging for black and working-class residents, who form the core of the ANC's support base.

Lastly, the ANC's relationship with its base in Johannesburg has deteriorated. Social distance within the party has widened, causing the leaders to become detached from the lives of their supporters. This disconnect is evident in the Bree Street taxi rank, which has become a dangerous and perilous route for commuters, especially women, due to ongoing repairs and repairs that have significantly increased costs.

Working commuters are now concerned about their ability to save a deposit for a car purchase, with the need for licensed vehicles further complicating the situation.