The balkanization of virtualization will de-throne VMware, which doesn't mind a bit

VMware, once the undisputed leader of the virtualization market for 20 years, is preparing to relinquish its top position. The company does not mind this shift, but it does signal the end of significant innovation in traditional server virtualization. Between now and October 2027, a period including three significant dates, tens of thousands of VMware customers will need to decide whether to change virtualization platforms or reduce their use of VMware.

Broadcom, the company that acquired VMware, will likely not push VMware users to stay with its products. Many users who are considering leaving are primarily relying on VMware for the vSphere and vCenter products used for virtualizing and managing a modest fleet of servers. Broadcom does not sell these products anymore, except as components in the VCF bundle, which is often more expensive than the last bill from a VMware user.

Some users are looking to reduce their reliance on VMware to allow for the transfer of VMs that don't need VCF to other platforms. Broadcom's interest is limited to 10,000 to 30,000 of the original 350,000 customers who need VCF and will focus on it as their future infrastructure and DevOps platform. Broadcom's intentions will become clear on three imminent dates: November 22, 2026, the third anniversary of the acquisition, the expiration of VMware's contracts with many members of its Cloud Service Provider program on March 31, 2027, and the last day of support for version 8 of VMware Cloud Foundation on October 11, 2027.

Many users are either considering a move or trying to avoid a new VMware purchase, and they know they won't find a better virtualization platform.