Taiwan: Growth outlook upgraded – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s GDP growth forecasts, projecting 11.5% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027, both slightly above government estimates. The upgrade is driven by AI-related export strength and recovering domestic demand.
Standard Chartered has increased its GDP growth predictions for Taiwan, projecting a stronger 11.5% growth in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027, both surpassing government estimates. The bank attributes this upgrade to a strong performance in the AI sector, leading to a boost in exports and recovering domestic demand. The AI supercycle is expected to endure, with positive spillovers into consumer spending, while keeping an eye on inflation indicators and maintaining its projected two 12.5bp rate hikes by the end of 2026 and early 2027.
Taiwan's specialization in high-end chip manufacturing means that any potential new US tariffs would have limited effects. The bank's forecast is primarily based on the faster-than-anticipated growth in the second quarter, driven by AI-driven demand and a revival of domestic demand, although they anticipate a significant drop in year-over-year growth as high base effects influence exports and GDP.
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