Shares skid in Asia as oil climbs, yields stay high

Asian share markets declined on Monday due to rising oil prices and elevated bond yields following heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Brent futures increased by 2.8% to $90.60 a barrel after U.S. forces attacked two of Iran's launchers on its island of Larak on Sunday. Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. forces in Jordan, while President Trump claimed Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil terminal, was being destroyed.

This geopolitical instability raised concerns about inflation, leading bond markets to remain cautious. The Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted the central bank's ongoing work to control inflation, increasing the probability of a September rate hike to 57%. Despite this, many still expect the hike to occur in December, with current Fed Chair signaling a more willing attitude towards tightening policies.

Key factors influencing early rate hikes include the upcoming August payrolls report and consumer price data. Inflation concerns prompted New Zealand's central bank to increase rates for a second consecutive meeting, while the Bank of Canada remains on hold due to potential trade war impacts. In response to these events, China's Nikkei dropped 1.6%, South Korean stocks fell 2.2%, and MSCI's Asia-Pacific index declined by 1.2%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.5%. The dollar strengthened above 160 yen, while Japanese bonds fell due to the rising 10-year yield, which surpassed its 1996 high. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed intentions to meet with the Bank of Japan's head, anticipating a possible September rate hike to support the weakened yen.