Rupee falls 13 paise to 95.56 as crude rises, Fed hike bets strengthen dollar

The Indian rupee experienced a decline on Monday, opening at 95.56 against the US dollar, a 13 paise drop from its previous session's closing rate of 95.43. This currency weakening can be attributed to the rising crude oil prices, tensions in the Middle East, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September. As forex traders and market participants anticipate a hike in US interest rates, the dollar gained strength, leading to a drop in the rupee's value.

Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, noted that the rupee's opening lower was backed by the dollar index reaching a 99.62 level. Bhansali also predicted limited fluctuations in the rupee throughout the day, with its value likely remaining between 95.25 and 95.75. The currency's limited movement means exporters may sell near the 95.60 levels, while importers could take advantage of any dips.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar relative to a basket of six currencies, currently stands at 99.62, showing a slight decline of 0.07 percent. Meanwhile, oil prices, particularly Brent crude futures, experienced an upswing as concerns about Middle Eastern supplies grew. Brent crude futures rose by 1.34 percent to $89.28 per barrel, following the US strike on Iran's Larak Island and Iran's retaliatory actions, leading to renewed worries about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Reserve Bank of India has been intervening in the foreign exchange market to prevent any significant depreciation of the rupee. Improved flows under the Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposit scheme also provided some relief to sentiment. However, domestic equities faced pressure, with the Sensex falling 226.60 points to 77,028.56 and the Nifty declining 120.40 points to 24,053.55 in opening trade.

Net sales of equities by foreign institutional investors amounted to Rs 5,039.80 crore on Friday, according to exchange data.

Despite these challenges, India's foreign exchange reserves reached a record high, increasing by $12.422 billion to $729.328 billion in the week ended August 21, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The country's reserves are expected to remain strong as attention continues to focus on India-US trade relations. On September 1, the commerce ministry is set to meet industry associations and representatives from export promotion councils to discuss India-US trade performance.

The meeting, chaired by additional secretary Darpan Jain, serves as India's chief negotiator for the bilateral trade agreement.