Running on empty: Russia’s fuel shortage is here to stay and could get even worse

Fuel shortages in Russia are persisting, with authorities in multiple regions officially acknowledging the ongoing issue. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed the situation as mere "inconveniences," a report by S&P Global revealed that Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled at least 26 oil refineries from January to July, with seven still offline.

Four more refineries faced attacks in August, prompting the Russian government to extend its gasoline export ban for another six months, while diesel exports remain banned until the end of September. The strikes have significantly impacted refining capacity, with Ukrainian attacks having knocked out nearly a third of Russia's refining capacity, as reported by the Financial Times.

Notably, Ukrainian strikes have targeted crucial components like primary refining units, catalyst units, and compressor equipment, aiming to keep refineries offline for extended periods. Despite repair efforts, the pace is falling behind the rate of new strikes, with Russian refineries projected to process only 4 million barrels of oil per day in August, down 5% from July and 2.5% from June, indicating a significant decline from its normal range of 5.3–5.5 million barrels per day.

The prolonged repairs are attributed to the nature of the damage, particularly the reliance on imported components, which complicates the restoration process due to sanctions. Consequently, fuel availability on the domestic market has fluctuated, with some regions lifting fuel sales restrictions while others reintroduced odd-even sales due to ongoing refinery disruptions.