Nigeria’s worsening insecurity tests president’s second-term bid

Nigeria's escalating insecurity tests President Bola Tinubu's prospects for a second term in office. Last month, hundreds of people were abducted from a mosque in northern Nigeria, a disturbing incident that underscores the surge in attacks on civilians by insurgents and bandits. This year's first three months witnessed the most violent period in at least three decades. The recent attacks follow a retired army general's death in captivity and the kidnapping of over a hundred travelers.

President Tinubu, who embarked on a three-week vacation in Europe on Sunday, has ordered an army and police rescue operation for the 600 people abducted in Niger state. However, this episode arrives at a critical moment as the incumbent president is actively campaigning for re-election. While his administration has touted economic progress, it has been less vocal about Nigeria's deteriorating security situation.

During his 2023 campaign, Tinubu pledged a "proactive and intelligence-driven security approach," but he has largely focused on solving Nigeria's ailing economy in his first term. A recent scorecard from his team highlighted economic achievements, while downplaying the security situation. James Barnett, a non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute, noted that while security policies were implemented, they did not receive top-level engagement.

Rivals for the presidency, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, have vowed to prioritize security if elected. They propose hiring more personnel and decentralizing security management to address the issue. Tinubu has supported a law allowing Nigerian states to establish their own police departments and has tasked a security committee with drafting a five-year strategic defense operations plan.

The Nigerian populace's fear of abduction has grown more prevalent over the past three years. The persistent threat of kidnapping and terrorism affects individuals in various settings, such as churches, mosques, schools, and even at home. Despite Tinubu's strong campaign pledges, the country has failed to eliminate abduction and terrorism.

Security experts argue that Nigeria's inability to curb these issues is a direct result of Tinubu's administration. Analysts emphasize that addressing the ideological, economic, and governance gaps that enable bad actors to thrive is crucial. With both major candidates yet to present comprehensive action plans, Nigerians are left with limited options to tackle the worsening security challenges.