Niger: Failed coup exposes junta's weakness — and Russia's influence

Niger is grappling with a failed coup, shedding light on the frailties of its military junta and Russia's growing influence. The country's soldiers endure meager wages, often earning less than €150 a month, and struggle to support large families on their meager salaries. This financial strain exacerbates discontent within the military, which is expected to adhere to strict military leadership following a 2023 coup that ousted democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum.

General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the junta leader, justifies their rule by citing the persistent threat of jihadi violence, a claim increasingly undermined by public frustration and the junta's heavy reliance on Russian support. A weekend mutiny at Air Base 101 saw parts of the army briefly seize control of the airport and move toward the presidential palace, an act Senegalese governance expert Pape Ibrahima Kane deemed an attempted coup.

The government labeled it a mutiny but acknowledged Russian intervention in supporting the junta's forces, raising questions about the junta's dependence on foreign military assistance. While Russia's Africa Corps has played a crucial role in aiding the military government's counterterrorism efforts, its benefits are limited by the ongoing insurgency and the army's structural issues.

This case underscores Niger's precarious dependence on external forces, exposing the junta's vulnerability and the critical role Russia plays in its stability.