Cornered, Vladimir Putin plans to escalate his war

Vladimir Putin, during a speech at a Moscow university on August 29th, seemingly compared orcas preying on polar bears as an illustration of the "food chain" as a metaphor for the ongoing war in Ukraine. The president said this to justify the ongoing "special military operation" against Ukraine. This statement, though inaccurate, showcased Putin's domineering perspective.

Western allies have been increasingly unsettled by Putin's approach. Recently, NATO countries have expressed concerns about the direction of his thinking. Russia’s military forces have been stagnant, resulting in numerous casualties each month. The war has become a vicious cycle of drone and missile attacks, causing damage not only to Ukraine but also to Russia.

Despite these setbacks, Putin shows no signs of backing away from the conflict. He is reportedly considering escalating the war, a move known as "tupik" in Russian, from past experiences. An insider close to the Kremlin believes he may have interpreted John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow as evidence of American weakness.

Western countries are growing increasingly uneasy. America’s CIA director, John Ratcliffe, unexpectedly visited Moscow on August 25th, allegedly to warn Putin against attacking NATO countries. The visit led to a tense atmosphere, with several nations stepping up their precautions. Finland requested assistance from Sweden's military to monitor their border, Germany prepared to blame Russia for a drone attack at Leipzig Airport, and Romania claimed to have destroyed a Russian drone targeting its drilling platform.

Meanwhile, Slovakia thwarted an arson attack on a drone factory. On August 22nd, Putin addressed the Kremlin's political party, accusing Ukraine of opening "Pandora's box" and threatening "blowback on the most sensitive sectors of your economy." He reiterated his commitment to the conflict, stating, "The special military operation continues. We will move only forward."

Putin’s internal motivations for escalating the war are rooted in preserving his power and maintaining his life. The levelling of public support for the war, due to drone attacks on refineries, e-retailers, and internet restrictions, has shattered the façade of normalcy. Public trust in state-controlled media is declining, with a growing number of people voicing their discontent on social media.

Putin's approval rating is on the decline, and the political elite express concern over the wasted time the war has consumed, with near five years being considered a failure.

While Russia possesses the financial resources and repressive mechanisms to continue the war, the perception of weakness could pose a significant threat to Putin. His regime thrives on violence and has no tolerance for failure. He might believe that abandoning the war without achieving his objective of annexing all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region would put him physically at risk.

However, escalating the war remains unclear, as Russia is likely to intensify hybrid warfare, sabotage Ukraine’s allies, and target supply routes to the country. Despite Western intelligence agencies' concerns about a direct military confrontation with NATO, they believe Putin does not want such a conflict. In Ukraine, escalation is expected to involve further attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, further increasing the human toll of the war.