Communicating uncertainty in research is hard, so we worked on how best to do it—here's what you can watch out for
Earlier this summer, the four of us spent three days in a room with a dozen others whose jobs sound nothing like ours, or like each other's: a cosmologist, an emergency management scholar, a genetic counselor, a hydrologist, a neuropsychologist, a health risk communication scholar, a cognitive neuroscientist, a theater director, an investigative journalist and a meteorologist.
Earlier this summer, a diverse group of researchers gathered for a workshop to tackle the challenge of communicating uncertainty in research. The participants, hailing from various disciplines and backgrounds, convened through CIFAR, a research organization that fosters interdisciplinary collaboration. Each brought an object that represented their struggle with representing uncertainty clearly.
The workshop revealed that uncertainty is a pervasive issue in every field, and it is crucial to acknowledge and discuss it openly rather than hiding it.
Many researchers instinctively treat uncertainty as a failure, a problem to be hidden before anyone notices. However, the workshop underscored that uncertainty is not the absence of knowledge or a lack of results. Instead, it is a generative space where curiosity, learning, and new understanding can thrive. The participants agreed that articulating uncertainty makes it harder to share their work clearly with the public, and glossing over it can damage public trust when people later discover the doubt that was left out.
Uncertainty encompasses a range of possibilities, such as multiple potential outcomes or incomplete information. It could mean that there are different predictions for a weather event, that a wildfire might affect a specific community, or that a lab model may not translate well to real-world situations. Genetic counselors, for instance, communicate uncertainty to families facing potential diagnoses by translating population-level information into actionable insights for individuals.
Navigating uncertainty is a core aspect of research, and it never fully goes away. Researchers from various fields shared examples of how uncertainty manifests in their work. Some emphasized the social conventions surrounding statistical significance, while others discussed the challenges of translating lab models to real-world applications. The workshop also highlighted the importance of clear communication of uncertainty to the public, as it can significantly impact how findings are received and understood.
Written by urgent.news from Phys.org's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
