After 16% rainfall deficit in August, IMD says September to remain below normal as well

Despite a few good rainfalls throughout August, India recorded a rainfall shortfall of over 16 percent, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday. The forecast predicts less than 91 percent of the normal rainfall for September, the final month of the monsoon season. This implies that India's cumulative rainfall for the entire four-month rainy season, spanning from June to September, is expected to fall far below 90 percent.

Up until August, the seasonal rainfall had only reached 84 percent of the usual amount. August is typically the second wettest month of the season, contributing 29 percent of the total seasonal rainfall, compared to July's 32 percent. On Monday, at a press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that with below-normal rainfall anticipated in September, the season is likely to remain below 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

As of the end of August, half of the country had experienced below-normal rains. According to the IMD, out of the 741 districts being monitored, 312 (42 percent) had deficient rains by August, while another 38 districts (5 percent) were suffering from large deficiencies. Only 290 districts, including those in Odisha, had received normal rainfall at that time.

Ninety-four districts had received more than the normal amount of rain. The IMD attributed the 16 percent deficit in August, the seventh largest such shortfall since 2001, to the ongoing El Nino phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The agency explained that while four low-pressure systems developed during August and persisted for a combined total of 26 days, their rainfall impact was mainly confined to the Indo-Gangetic Plains.

The southern peninsula witnessed a rainfall deficit of over 27 percent for the month, and both Central India and the eastern and northeastern regions experienced a deficiency of around 16 percent. Meanwhile, the northwestern region received about 10 percent less rain than normal. For September, the IMD indicated that normal rainfall would be limited to parts of Odisha, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Ladakh.

The rest of the country is expected to face below-average precipitation. Currently, a well-defined low-pressure area over Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Odisha continues to bring rainfall to these areas until it shifts west-northwestwards by Tuesday. Odisha has consistently received steady rainfall throughout the season, recording a 25 percent surplus so far.

North India, encompassing Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, is bracing for widespread heavy rain, expected to cease by September 5. In August, all parts of the country, except Odisha, experienced a rainfall deficit. Among the most rain-deficit states were Meghalaya (-58 percent), Arunachal Pradesh (-41 percent), Bihar (-40 percent), Punjab (-36 percent), and Kerala (-21 percent).