What's in store at this week's Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting

Political tensions are expected to simmer at this week's Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting in Palau, a Micronesian nation known for its striking karst landscape and advocacy on climate change. Palau, one of Taiwan's Pacific allies, is strategically important due to its location within the US military's second island chain. This year's meeting may see heated debates over Taiwan's role in the Pacific and China's growing military capabilities, even though a diplomatic fallout is not guaranteed.

The absence of Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, Kiribati's President Taneti Maamau, Vanuatu's Prime Minister Jotham Napat, and Samoa's Prime Minister Laauli Leuatea Schmidt has created uncertainties over regional unity. Debates will span climate change, regional security, the narcotics trade, and the relationship between Pacific nations and outside powers.

China's recent intercontinental ballistic missile test, which landed near Tuvalu's exclusive economic zone, has sparked political shockwaves in the Pacific. Several nations criticized China, but Kiribati and Nauru, with ties to Beijing, blocked a joint statement condemning the test during the PIF Foreign Ministers meeting in Fiji. This has led to a tense exchange, with Kiribati's President Taneti Maamau lodging objections with the Chinese embassy.

The US has conducted far more missile tests in the Pacific than China, but Kiribati's argument is not persuasive to Australia, which has a compact agreement with the Marshall Islands allowing it to conduct missile tests. Palau's President Surangel Whipps Jr has urged leaders to issue a clear condemnation of China's test, while acknowledging their right to voice concerns about US tests as well.

The chance of a joint statement condemning China's test appears slim, but leaders may instead include a paragraph on the issue in their communiqué, a close approximation of a definitive political statement from the region.

The upcoming meeting is an important battleground in China's diplomatic efforts to isolate Taiwan, with Beijing intent on controlling the democratically ruled island and isolating it on the global stage. Taiwan's presence at the PIF dialogue partners meeting, despite not being a formal dialogue partner, is significant. Beijing's efforts to exclude Taiwan from the forum have failed so far.