Supply driven trucking market cycle explained in the data

The Accepted Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI), which tracks the number of loads carriers accept under existing agreements, averaged 9,800 last week. Meanwhile, the Truckload Rejection Index (STRI), measuring the percentage of loads rejected, hovered around 13.5%, both down from their 12-month peaks. While both figures indicate a supply-driven market cycle, there is still room for growth.

ASTVI is a reliable indicator of total demand when rejection rates are low, but can undercount demand when rates are high, as loads may be filled in the spot market or outside contracts. During market tightening, ASTVI serves as a useful benchmark for the amount of freight carriers can cover with existing capacity. A rising ASTVI and falling STRI signal capacity growth or market efficiency improvements.

Conversely, flat ASTVI with rising rejection rates often indicate capacity erosion, a pattern seen in October 2024 and 2025. Falling ASTVI and STRI suggests pure demand deterioration, as was the case in July. Demand-side volatility, with more shippers opting for cost-efficient intermodal transport, contrasts sharply with the slower, supply-side shifts that took over three years to correct the post-COVID oversupply.

Current ASTVI levels are close to 2019 levels, lower than the past four years except for October and November of last year. TRA rejection rates were under 5% most of 2019 and below 6% last fall, indicating a more congested market with double the tightness today. While demand contraction remains a possibility, the data suggests more room for deterioration rather than contraction.

Recent Q2 2026 earnings reports reveal no fleet growth, with most carriers reporting declines in active units. Class 8 orders have increased this year but are based on a poor 2025 comparison. Both ACT and Freight Transportation Review (FTR) cite fleet replacement for growth, not expansion. The market has been tough since the 2009 Great Recession, with carriers depleted of cash reserves and burdened by high debt.

While there's still time to witness strong movement, carriers are emerging from one of the longest and most challenging freight markets since 2009. Risks point towards further tightening rather than rapid softening, with factors like demand growth, rail disruptions, higher intermodal rates, and continued government capacity pressure all pointing in the same direction.