Russia unlikely to risk attack on NATO – Finnish President Stubb

Finnish President Alexander Stubb expressed his belief that Russia would not risk attacking NATO countries, according to a recent interview with German newspaper Bild. Stubb stated that he relies on intelligence and possesses a strong deterrent force, consisting of conventional armed forces, missiles, and nuclear weapons. He emphasized that it does not make sense for any country to test the resolve of NATO, as the alliance's deterrence is unparalleled. However, Stubb advised NATO countries to prepare for the worst to prevent any potential attack.

Stubb dismissed warnings from Germany's Defense Ministry and the Bundeswehr that Russia could be prepared to attack NATO territory by 2029. He also pointed out that Russia's "information warfare" aims to instill fear in Europe by causing debate over the likelihood of escalation and use of nuclear weapons. Stubb suggested that Russia's only remaining option for escalation is mobilization, which would have significant domestic political consequences for Russia.

The Finnish president noted that Russia's military is suffering heavy losses in Ukraine, losing 30,000 to 35,000 troops monthly, while only recruiting around 27,000. This puts Russia in an increasingly difficult situation, making the prospect of an attack on another country extremely unlikely. Stubb believed that an attack on NATO was unlikely due to the lack of evidence and Russia's limited options for escalation.