‘No’ camp seen winning Iceland’s EU referendum

Iceland's "No" camp is expected to secure a victory in the referendum on resuming the country's suspended EU membership negotiations, according to early vote counting on Sunday in Reykjavik. The "No" camp has garnered 52.5% of the votes, while the "Yes" camp trails at 47.5%, with only a few ballots remaining in one of the six voting districts, which is already leaning towards a "No" outcome.

The referendum result could delay Iceland's EU debate until at least 2028, dealing a significant setback to Brussels' ambitions of welcoming a new, prosperous member state. The outcome also effectively ends the EU question in Iceland until 2028, as the country's economy and politics remain closely tied to the EU through its membership in the European Economic Area and the Schengen zone.

Iceland applied for EU membership following a severe financial crisis in 2009, and negotiations were suspended in 2013 when a Eurosceptic government took power. The current government, led by Social Democratic Prime Minister Kristjana Þorsteinsdóttir, sought input from Icelanders on strengthening ties with the EU amid heightened international tensions.

The referendum result is non-binding, but the government vowed to honor the outcome. While the "Yes" camp would have allowed Iceland to resume negotiations, including on contentious fishing rights, the "No" camp's apparent triumph leaves Brussels with no choice but to respect the decision.