How the UAE could turn longer lives into a longevity economy

The United Arab Emirates and numerous Gulf nations are experiencing an increase in life expectancy, nearing 80 years in some places. However, the proportion of these years spent in good health is lagging behind, resulting in a widening gap between lifespan and "healthspan." This discrepancy may pose considerable economic challenges.

A recent analysis conducted by Deep Knowledge Group posits that the UAE could transform this issue into a chance by establishing an economy centered around preventative measures, healthy aging, and extended working lifespans.

Dmitry Kaminskiy, a General Partner at Deep Knowledge Group, pointed out that while the Gulf region has achieved a significant milestone in extending lifespan, the focus should now shift to enhancing the quality of life during these additional years. The research indicates that the Gulf region loses approximately 4,186 healthy life-years per 100,000 people compared to the average of OECD countries. Contributing factors include diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular diseases, and physical inactivity.

A significant portion of the economic impact associated with chronic diseases occurs among working-age individuals who maintain employment despite living with long-term conditions, thus placing financial strain on families. Kaminskiy emphasized that the majority of economic damage arising from chronic diseases is not borne by healthcare budgets but by individuals who remain employed while dealing with health issues.

Prevention of chronic diseases should thus be viewed as an economic policy rather than merely a health policy.

The economic ramifications of these chronic diseases are substantial, with major non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory diseases estimated to cost the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) about $50 billion annually. This represents roughly 2.3% of the GCC's economic output, with around two-fifths of the total expense falling on employers, households, and the broader economy rather than being directly absorbed by health budgets.

The study suggests that increasing the number of healthy years across the GCC by two to four years could potentially generate between $70 billion and $100 billion in additional economic output by 2030. The ageing population in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to surge by about 243% by 2050, while fertility rates are anticipated to decline by approximately 19.2%.

With an average effective retirement age of around 54 and life expectancy stretching into the early 80s, regional systems may eventually need to support about 27 years of post-retirement life for each retiree.

The UAE's unique demographic structure, with about 88% of its residents being expatriates, offers a potential advantage in developing solutions that other countries might find challenging to implement. Portable pensions, insurance coverage, health records, long-term care services, and health-linked savings systems will become increasingly important in managing the economic implications of an aging workforce.

The UAE's private healthcare system, which accounts for 89% of health facilities and 72.8% of hospital admissions, could also play a crucial role in accelerating the adoption of preventative healthcare. However, this model introduces complexities related to fragmented medical data, duplicated testing, and variations in healthcare standards.

Longevity medicine hinges on the ability to monitor health over time; thus, the report underscores the necessity for interoperable health records, uniform preventive-care standards, integrated diagnostic pathways, and data analytics capable of tracking population health over extended periods.

Ultimately, success in longevity medicine should be gauged by health outcomes rather than merely the number of clinics or longevity programs established. Key indicators should include the delayed onset of chronic diseases, longer periods of independent living, fewer preventable hospital admissions, and shorter and improved end-of-life periods.

For the UAE, this opportunity extends beyond healthcare. Developing the necessary infrastructure to finance, monitor, and support longer healthy lives could enable the country to export this expertise throughout the broader MENA region as populations age, workforces become more mobile, and retirement periods lengthen.