Who gets to shape Sudan’s political future?

Sudan's political future depends on a complex process that has encountered numerous obstacles. While a ceasefire is a necessary step, it alone cannot determine the country's direction. The key questions at hand are who will govern, who will represent the people, and what form the future state will take.

A broad political process is deemed essential, separate from military negotiations and requiring support from the regional, international community, and the United Nations. However, the mechanism to facilitate this process – the 'Quintet' comprising the African Union, Arab League, IGAD, UN, and EU – has faced structural challenges since its inception.

The army, despite being technically open to dialogue, seeks to control the process's parameters, including who leads it and who can participate. The army's primary concern is maintaining its control over Sudan's future government. Its repeated objections to the Quintet's composition and leadership are not merely procedural disputes, but attempts to retain political authority.

The army's suspension from the African Union, due to a 2021 coup, complicates the Quintet's role. The body cannot lead a political process in a country that is not an active member. This raises a critical question: how can an international body guide Sudan when it is not formally part of the international community?

Despite these challenges, the Quintet's role is crucial. Its suspension weakens its ability to facilitate a political solution, deepening Sudan's humanitarian and security crisis. This contradiction poses one of the most significant obstacles to achieving a lasting settlement.