Wall Street: El-Erian: „Was im US-Anleihemarkt passiert, bleibt nicht in den USA.“

In recent weeks, the author observed multiple instances of the US Treasury Department intervening in the markets. He believes this marks the beginning of a new power struggle between investors and the US government. This development is part of a larger trend, as the Trump administration has increasingly shown its willingness to intervene beyond the bond market, including in trade policy and direct company investments.

The administration's actions are driven by the importance of geo-economics, which involves using economic tools to achieve political and strategic goals.

The recent interventions seem to be focused on addressing the high cost of living, particularly housing, which is especially relevant as it approaches the November congressional elections. Lower mortgage rates are a key concern, and the Treasury's bond purchases and interventions in the yen market aim to achieve this goal. However, the effects of these interventions have already diminished for both the yen and longer-term US Treasury bonds.

The US government now has four options: to intervene more aggressively, potentially forming a "Pact with the Fed," or to pursue a strategy similar to Japan's, seeking to control the yield curve.