Qué pasará con los precios de la vivienda este año

This summer has been marked by the World Cup in Spain. The championship, which ended with Spain winning the trophy, serves as a metaphor for the country's real estate market. Over the past years, Spain has been a champion in the dynamism of its housing segment, with a residential sector that has consistently shown extraordinary intensity.

As the Colombian singer Shakira sings in her summer anthem, "You've been brave all along, what broke you once made you strong." Paraphrasing this global artist, we can also say that the Spanish real estate market has been brave in recent years. It has weathered the impact of a pandemic (2020), rising prices (2021), inflation (2022), counterproductive regulations (2023), a monetary cycle shift (2024), credit tightening (2026) and a currently insufficient supply.

As the song suggests, the lessons learned help to be stronger in the future. This is the case for our housing market, which stands out for its resilience and progress towards a stabilization phase. After the championship, it's time for some rest. Demand is starting to reach the maximum payment margin. Prices have grown much faster (66% over the last six months) than the savings of a significant portion of households, while financing leaves behind the favorable conditions that drove activity, especially with the progressive decline in interest rates in the 2024-2025 period.

The result will be a slowdown. We will see fewer purchase transactions, a gradual moderation of the growth rate of prices, and adjustments in markets where economic effort has gone too far. We are at the end of an exceptional growth phase and the beginning of a normalization stage in which the market will have to get back in line with the limits of the real economy.

A real estate World Cup that ends. The data for the first half of 2026 shows how intense the cycle has been. In the first six months of 2026, there were 347,464 purchases, just 2.6% less than the same period in 2025. In June, 59,288 operations were recorded, maintaining a very high market level and close to the 2025 monthly average of 58,700 operations.

The immediate reading is that the market remains very strong. And it is. But it would be a mistake to interpret the high activity as a guarantee that the current pace can continue indefinitely. The most relevant data is not that nearly 60,000 transactions are still being made monthly, but that after several years of intense growth, the market is starting to lose speed.

The need for housing remains intact and potential demand continues to be high. What is beginning to change is the ability to automatically convert that need into a purchase. An increasing number of those seeking housing encounter an obstacle they cannot overcome. The price is too close, or even above, what their financial capacity allows.

That's why the coming cycle will be marked not so much by the disappearance of demand as by the selection of buyers. There will be fewer capable purchasers of the current prices, greater sensitivity to new financing conditions, and a growing importance of savings and solvency. An additional 35,000 euros per same property. To understand the scale of this change, consider the absolute numbers.

In July, the price of residential property in Spain reached €3,154 per square meter, 16.2% more than a year earlier. For a standard 80-square-meter home, this means moving from a price of €217,000 in July 2025 to €252,000 in July 2026. It's hard to imagine a figure more expressive of the pressure the demand is under. Thirty-five thousand euros additional is not a small deviation in a family's budget.

It's several years of savings for many households. And it doesn't constitute the total cost of the operation: those who need financing must add the purchase price to the purchase costs and the burden of assuming a mortgage for decades. The problem, therefore, is not that housing is expensive, but that prices are growing faster than households' ability to pay.

This disconnect is the phenomenon that best explains the current moment. For years, we have spoken of strong demand facing insufficient supply. Now we must add a part of demand that, while still numerous, is beginning to run out of financial capacity. Therefore, the price of housing is starting to bump up against its ceiling. Effective demand for purchases is running out.

The lack of supply continues to be the main support for prices in the most tense markets. In July, the 17 regions recorded interannual increases, and 14 autonomous communities exceeded 10%. Madrid approaches €5,500 per square meter, while the Balearic Islands reach €5,400. Guipúzcoa and Málaga also surpass €4,500. These levels reflect an extraordinary buying pressure in many areas.

But they also show that the market is approaching a frontier it cannot ignore: no matter how scarce the supply, buyers need to be able to pay. This nuance will be decisive in the evolution of the coming months. While solvent demand maintains the capacity to assume prices, the supply shortage will continue to push valuations higher.

But as more households cannot compete for those homes, the market will lose speed. First, the behavior of buyers will change. They will look for less.