Knowledge Nugget | How will heat stress affect children and elderly?

Recent studies reveal the severe impact of rising heat stress on India's most vulnerable populations—the elderly and children. At just 1.5°C of global warming, more than half of India's older population could endure intolerable heat for over 180 hours annually, with the risk intensifying to over 2,000 hours at 3°C warming. This heat exposure is not evenly distributed throughout the year but concentrated between May and September, posing significant health risks.

Older adults, accounting for 73% of the world's elderly population, face heightened vulnerability due to their impaired ability to regulate body temperature. Previous studies underestimated the risk older individuals face, potentially by a factor of two, as they largely relied on data from healthy young adults. Heat warnings alone are insufficient, as they fail to identify and protect the most vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, those living alone, chronic illness sufferers, and those in poorly ventilated homes without access to cooling.

A separate study from Vrije Universiteit Brussel highlights that up to 560 million children aged 0-9 globally—43% of all children in this age group—are exposed to at least one additional month of heat stress annually due to climate change. In India, this number rises to 145 million children, or 61% of the 0-9 age group, with heat stress exposure doubling from 59 million to 118 million children, or 50% of children in this age group.

The projections become even more alarming with further warming, with 166 million Indian children (74%) projected to experience at least one additional month of heat stress each year at 1.5°C of warming.