Iceland votes on whether to start EU membership talks, results too close to call
Iceland first applied to join the EU in 2009, amid a financial crisis that hit the country's small, exposed economy especially hard, and talks ended under a Eurosceptic government in 2013.
On Saturday, Iceland's citizens voted on whether to resume membership talks with the European Union (EU), with the results too close to call. The campaign centered around concerns about the cost of living, security, sovereignty, and control over fishing waters. A recent Gallup poll indicated a narrow majority opposed reopening negotiations, marking a shift from earlier surveys that showed supporters in a slight lead.
Advocates of reopening talks argue that joining the EU could alleviate high interest rates and enhance security amid global unrest caused by the Ukraine war and former US President Donald Trump's threats towards Greenland. On the other hand, opponents contend that EU membership would jeopardize Iceland's sovereignty and fishing rights.
Former President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, who campaigned against EU membership, stated that "Today is our encounter with history." If the "yes" camp wins, Iceland would initiate talks with Brussels, which would then require a second referendum, likely several years later, to confirm membership. Iceland initially applied for EU membership in 2009, but the process was halted by a Eurosceptic government during the financial crisis.
Renewed geopolitical tensions have intensified the debate over EU membership. Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir, supporting the "yes" vote, emphasized the need for Iceland to consider its position in a rapidly changing world, stating, "The international order that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under serious pressure. In times like these, small nations need to think carefully about where they stand and who stands with them."
Economic factors have also played a role in the debate. Iceland's central bank rate is significantly higher at 8.00% compared to the European Central Bank's 2.25%. Supporters claim EU membership, potentially adopting the euro, could provide economic relief, although Vilhjalmur Hilmarsson, chief economist at Viska, a major labor union, cautioned that it would not resolve Iceland's structural issues.
Opposition leader Gudrun Hafsteinsdottir, leading the "no" campaign, argued that the economic benefits are overstated and that Iceland's politicians must address these problems themselves. Under EU rules, fishing quotas are determined by historical patterns, and while some believe this would allow Iceland to maintain control over its waters, opponents remain skeptical.
A foreign ministry memo estimates that accession talks could commence by the end of 2026 and last 18 to 24 months if the "yes" vote prevails. Additionally, Iceland must hold a general election by November 2028, adding further political uncertainty to the negotiating timeline. Polling took place from 8:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. local time across the nation of approximately 400,000 inhabitants.
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