Iceland votes on whether to start EU membership talks in shadow of Trump's Greenland threats

Icelandic voters will determine on Saturday whether to restart negotiations on joining the European Union (EU), 13 years after they were suspended. Recent polls indicate the "No" campaign is slightly ahead with 51.6% support. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's center-left government had planned to hold a referendum, but expedited the process due to recent global events.

The referendum question asks: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" Iceland is already part of the EU's single market and Schengen zone through the European Economic Area, but full EU membership would require joining the customs union and eventually adopting the euro. Of the 35 negotiation chapters, 27 have begun and 11 are complete.

A "Yes" vote would only lead to an initial agreement, requiring further approval by parliament, the constitution, and the EU's 27 member states. Meanwhile, a "No" vote would not prevent future negotiations. The "Yes to See" campaign encourages voters to see the potential deal before the final decision, while the "No" campaign fears losing control over Iceland's fishing industry under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy.

Iceland's fishing and marine industries account for almost 40% of exports. The "No" campaign also emphasizes Iceland's sovereignty and the potential negative impact of EU membership on the country's economy and defense. Iceland has been a NATO member since 1951, but it has no military and relies on NATO and the US for defense. The EU and Iceland recently signed a security and defense partnership.