Bangladesh's search for modern fighter ends with Chinese J-10; should India be worried?

Bangladesh is on the verge of becoming the second confirmed buyer of China's J-10CE fighter jet, a development closely monitored in neighboring India. The government panel in Dhaka is set to draft an agreement for formal negotiations with Beijing. If successful, this deal would be among Bangladesh's largest defense purchases in recent years, further solidifying its military ties with China, which is currently its largest arms supplier.

Local reports suggest Bangladesh may acquire up to 24 J-10CE jets, with the total cost estimated at around USD2.2 billion, including weapons, spares, and training. Payments are expected to be spread over a decade, culminating by 2035-36.

The significance of this move lies in the J-10CE's demonstrated combat performance during last year's Indian-Pakistani conflict. Pakistan is the sole confirmed operator of the export variant, but Bangladesh's favorable view of the aircraft's capabilities has influenced its decision. Bangladesh's exploration of modern fighter options has included the French Rafale and, more recently, the Eurofighter Typhoon.

The Bangladeshi Air Force is pursuing a modern aircraft under the "Forces Goal 2030" program, aiming to enhance the combat capabilities of the Bangladeshi armed forces across various arenas.

The last aircraft procured by the Bangladeshi Air Force was the Chinese-origin F-7, a derivative of the MiG-21, which the country has not been able to procure due to financial constraints. Bangladesh attempted to acquire the Eurofighter Typhoon via a Letter of Intent with the Italian firm Leonardo. For India, the implications are clear but concerning.

A second South Asian air force operating the same Chinese jet, which is already in Pakistani service, would grant Bangladesh its first credible beyond-visual-range combat capability, backed by modern AESA radar and networked systems, along India's eastern border, particularly along the Siliguri border. This move also highlights China's growing influence in South Asia's defense landscape, with China yet to secure a second confirmed customer for the J-10CE despite interest from countries like Egypt, Indonesia, and Iran.

This purchase represents a notable milestone in China's fighter export ambitions. Furthermore, this development occurs at a time when China's share of the global defense market has decreased, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). China's defense exports have declined despite global arms procurement increasing, partially driven by Europe's increased defense spending in response to the conflict in Ukraine.

A significant portion of China's defense exports goes to Pakistan, with Bangladesh representing a small share of these exports.