The Strait of Hormuz after six months of war: Blockades, drones and the shadow fleet

Last week, the Strait of Hormuz witnessed an average of 29 cargo ships transiting through the waterway daily, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). This increase in maritime traffic follows US President Donald Trump's declaration that the strait remains open. The UKMTO reported that 103 vessels entered the Gulf, while 101 departed during the same period.

The center noted a slight upsurge in maritime activity since the cessation of hostilities between Iran and the United States in July. However, the UKMTO's figures differ from those of specialized shipping tracking platforms, such as Kpler, which recently stated that no more than 10 ships cross the strait daily. The discrepancy between the estimates stems from different monitoring methods, with AIS devices used by shipping tracking platforms potentially missing some movements if vessels disable them.

Conversely, the UKMTO integrates AIS data with intelligence from untracked movements, along with direct communication with shipping companies operating in the region. The rise in vessel traffic coincided with Trump's statements affirming the Strait of Hormuz's openness and Iran's diminished capability to threaten ships. In a recent interview with Axios, Trump stated that Iran seeks to avoid further US strikes, adding that the country does not wish for the US to retaliate again.