SADC faces deeper El Niño food-security threat as neighbours lack grain buffers

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) faces an elevated food-security risk due to the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern during the 2026/27 harvest season. South Africa is in a more favorable position compared to neighboring countries, with a record maize yield, ample grain reserves, enhanced soil moisture, and higher water levels in dams.

However, several regional nations such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia are already relying on maize imports from South Africa, indicating potential shortfalls in domestic grain production. As the current harvest period concludes, there is limited time for another poor harvest or price surge to be mitigated.

Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo cautioned that regional demand for grains and other agricultural products might intensify in 2027 if the forthcoming harvest underperforms. Sihlobo highlighted that while South Africa may still export maize, declining crop yields across multiple SADC nations could heighten competition for accessible supplies and drive prices upward. East Africa might receive more favorable rainfall patterns, yet Kenya's grain output is unlikely to compensate for potential shortages in Southern Africa.

During the 2015/16 El Niño drought, maize from Mexico helped alleviate the regional shortage. However, similar imports might be necessary again, potentially exposing countries to currency fluctuations, freight costs, and disruptions in ports and inland transportation. The World Food Programme's capacity to provide such assistance during a crisis remains uncertain, as concerns exist about reduced funding from US aid.

Consequently, SADC governments would need to arrange imports, safeguard transportation routes, and identify vulnerable households prior to the lean season.

Professor Richard Mkandawire, the founding chairperson of the MwAPATA Institute, emphasized the necessity for governments to fund preparations before a drought escalates into a humanitarian emergency. He advocated for national and regional financing, coordination among governments, researchers, farmers' organizations, and the private sector, and urged the involvement of provincial and district authorities in implementing emergency measures.

Beatrice Makwenda of TrustAfrica stressed that resilience planning must be addressed by those bearing the risk, particularly smallholder farmers who often lack access to finance and insurance, yet bear the brunt of losses when harvests fail. Without proactive investments in grain logistics, drought-resistant farming practices, soil health, water management, and household support, an agricultural crisis could evolve into a broader regional affordability and hunger crisis.