Russia’s Energy Crisis Puts Kazakhstan in a Tough Spot
Kazakhstan is trying to keep the Kremlin at arm’s length amid Russian efforts to lean on Central Asian states for help in bolstering Moscow’s staggering war economy. Ukraine’s ongoing drone campaign has inflicted severe damage on Russia’s energy infrastructure and its military-industrial complex, prompting Russian officials to seek emergency energy supplies and refining arrangements from Central…
Kazakhstan is navigating a precarious position as Russia seeks to exploit Central Asian countries for energy support during its war in Ukraine. The ongoing drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure have prompted Moscow to turn to Central Asian states for emergency energy supplies and refining arrangements. Kazakhstan, however, is hesitant to align with Russia in the conflict, wary of potential repercussions.
The Moscow Times reported that some of Kazakhstan's largest refineries have refused to export oil and gas products to Russia, citing the threat of secondary sanctions.
Despite the domestic demand for oil and gas products, Kazakhstan has not completely cut off ties with Russia. On August 27, Kazakhstan's Energy Minister confirmed that one small facility will refine Russian crude and ship the bulk of the finished products back to Russia. However, this arrangement is unlikely to significantly alleviate Russia's refining challenges, according to Rystad Energy analysts.
Russia's refinery output is expected to decline by 30% in the second half of 2026, compared to seasonal averages, due to aging wells and limited capacity for production increases. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is conducting extensive military exercises to prepare for the conflict, signaling its determination not to be intimidated by Russia.
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