Indonesia’s 2026 oil output target at risk as key fields struggle

Indonesia's oil production remained significantly below target during the first seven months of 2026, falling short of the government's goal by nearly 20,000 barrels per day. This shortfall was primarily due to a sharp decline at ExxonMobil's Cepu block and operational disruptions at Pertamina Hulu Rokan's Rokan asset. The country's average oil production was 578,156 barrels per day as of July 31, falling short of the government's 610,000 b/d target for the year, according to Laode Sulaeman, the director general of Oil and Gas at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

Both oil and gas production realization were below target, and authorities are seeking additional barrels from drilling campaigns, mature fields, and overseas production to meet the state budget goal. SKK Migas head Djoko Siswanto estimated that existing recovery measures outside approved work plans could lift production to around 591,000 b/d, still nearly 20,000 b/d below the target.

The main contributors to the shortfall are the Cepu and Rokan fields, which are collectively producing about 54,500 b/d below target.