Fleeing Russians fear Putin is quietly preparing for another mobilization

On Russia’s southern border with Georgia, an alarming trend has emerged: over 113,000 Russians fled the country last week via the Upper Lars checkpoint, a sharp increase that signals growing apprehension over the Kremlin's potential plans for another mobilization. Recent months have seen Russian authorities introduce more stringent recruitment measures, intensified data collection on reservists, and expanded the National Guard's responsibilities, all of which have fueled speculation about another call to arms.

Human rights activist Alexey Tabalov, who heads the School of the Conscript, has observed a surge in legal requests from reservists, primarily from those in the reserve. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia could launch a "rapid mobilization" of several hundred thousand men by the end of the year.

Georgia, too, has experienced this phenomenon before. In September 2022, when President Vladimir Putin initiated a partial military mobilization following its invasion of Ukraine, Georgia became a primary destination for those seeking to escape. Despite the Kremlin's denial of any mobilization plans, former Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi points to a decline in Russia's volunteer recruitment, with Moscow's losses surpassing the number of willing recruits for the first time.

The "social contract" between the Kremlin and the Russian population, according to a Russian Peace Plea lawyer, is visibly deteriorating. The Russian government has been aggressively gathering data on reservists, with employers now inquiring about their addresses for potential tracking during an active mobilization. Recent laws have already necessitated electronic military summons, which take immediate effect once issued online, banning individuals from leaving the country.

National Guard preparations, including training and evacuations, further suggest a potential mobilization plan is underway.