Estimates predict 2.7 million extra people living with type 1 diabetes globally by 2049

A recent study presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) meeting in Milan predicts that the global population living with type 1 diabetes (T1D) will grow by 29% by 2049, from 9.4 million to 12.1 million people. This increase will be driven by both the rising number of people already living with T1D and the growing number of new cases each year.

The research, led by Professor Anders Green from the Steno Diabetes Center Odense in Denmark, used a new model called DIAMOND-T1D to project T1D prevalence and incidence into the future. The model takes into account historical patterns of insulin availability and provides country-specific estimates.

High-income countries (HICs) such as the United Kingdom, United States, and Italy are expected to see the largest increases in T1D prevalence. For example, the U.K. could see a 33% jump from 313,725 to 420,551 people living with T1D, while the U.S. could increase by over half a million, from 1,492,825 to 2,055,235. Italy is projected to see a 16% rise, bringing the total to 239,145 people living with T1D in 2049.

In contrast, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Tanzania are expected to see a doubling of new cases per year, from 3,275 to 6,177 between 2025 and 2049. However, the absolute number of people living with T1D in these countries will remain relatively low, doubling from 19,101 to 39,673.

The authors suggest that the predicted high prevalence in HICs and LMICs is likely due to a combination of genetic factors, environmental triggers, and good health care infrastructure that enables early detection. The study emphasizes the need for continued efforts to improve access to insulin and quality care, particularly in low-resource settings, to address the rising global T1D burden.