Turkey’s Rise Is Israel’s New Problem

Turmoil between Turkey and Israel has emerged as a new issue for Israel. This tension intensified after Israel carried out airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur air base in Syria on August 18, escalating existing tensions between the two nations. The United States, which maintains close relations with both countries, faces the challenge of determining whether they can cooperate or clash once the U.S. withdraws from the region.

Israel's Mossad revealed that the attack was prompted by Roman Gofman, the agency's head, who warned Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani against hosting a Turkish delegation, which Israel suspected would lead to a permanent Turkish military presence in Syria. Israel believed the visit was a precursor to such a deployment, fearing that Turkey's air defenses and armed drones could hinder its ability to target Iran.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rejected the Israeli airstrike as unlawful and an attack on Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. While Erdogan stated that no entity other than the nation itself can dictate Turkey's foreign policy, the conflict between Turkey and Israel has posed a new problem for the Trump administration.

Israel appears to have taken a proactive stance to deter Turkish expansion, ignoring Israeli warnings deliberately. Presently, over 20,000 Turkish troops are believed to be deployed in Syria, and both countries are competing to shape the region. Turkey is seen as a dominant Sunni power in the Middle East, potentially aligning with Israel's adversaries.

Turkey's intentions may extend beyond humanitarian aid, with its military strength making it an appealing force for Sunni powers. Turkey has offered to join an international stabilization force in Gaza, maintain troops in Lebanon to assist the Lebanese military, and retain a significant presence in Syria. However, Israel views Turkey's actions with skepticism, fearing the impact on its regional influence.