The CIA Told Putin Not To Escalate. He Won't Listen
The CIA warned the Kremlin not to invade Ukraine in November 2021. Why should we believe Putin would listen this time around?
In autumn 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden expressed concern over Russian troops massing near Ukraine's border. CIA Director William Burns was sent to Moscow with a warning: "We’re watching your troop buildup—don’t do what we think you might be about to do." This week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Russia to urge the Kremlin against further escalation in Ukraine and NATO.
However, with Putin not present, it's unclear if a face-to-face would have made any difference. The core dispute remains unresolved: NATO views Moscow as an aggressor and insists on European states' autonomy in security arrangements, while Russia sees NATO expansion as a threat to itself. Despite the war's costs and shifts in global alliances, the main issue stays the same.
Ratcliffe's visit aimed to prevent Moscow from escalating against NATO states, particularly in the Baltics. Estonian Prime Minister stressed that Russia's view of NATO's strength is not enough to justify an attack; Estonia is bolstering its defenses and hosting a UK-led NATO unit. However, history shows that assuming Moscow's perspective on military matters can be dangerous.
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