Thai July exports rise 21.6% y/y, beating forecast as factory output rises

Thailand's exports surged by 21.6% year-on-year in July, surpassing expectations set by analysts. This surpasses a forecast increase of 17.75% in a Reuters poll, according to the commerce ministry's report. The upward trend continues after a 20.8% rise in exports the previous month. Imports, however, experienced a faster growth rate of 36.7% in July compared to a year ago.

Despite this, Thailand is projected to maintain its expanding export momentum into 2026, with the commerce ministry anticipating a growth rate of more than 11% for the year, up from a previous forecast of 8%.

The trade deficit in July stood at $3.61 billion, contrasting with the poll's prediction of a $5.38 billion deficit. The ministry has projected a year-on-year export growth rate of over 11% for 2026, an increase from the earlier forecast of 8%. In the first seven months of 2026, exports grew by 18.2% year-over-year.

Globally, Thailand's exports saw a significant surge to the United States, its largest market, with shipments rising by 45.3% from a year earlier. Shipments to China also increased by 15.2% in July. The commerce ministry reported these figures.

Furthermore, Thailand's manufacturing production index rose 0.46% in July from a year earlier, outperforming analysts' forecasts. This figure contrasts with a 1.0% year-on-year drop forecast in a Reuters poll. The industry ministry had earlier predicted a 0.25% increase in factory output for the year, contrasting with a previous forecast range of 1.0% to 2.0%.