Thai exports rise 21.6% in July, beating forecast

Thailand's exports surged 21.6% in July, outpacing market predictions. The Ministry of Commerce announced on Thursday that this growth rate surpassed the 17.75% forecast in a Reuters poll, marking a significant increase from the 20.8% rise in the previous month. Import volumes, however, surged by a staggering 36.7% in July, resulting in a trade deficit of $3.61 billion for the month.

This growing disparity between imports and exports has drawn Washington's attention, fueling concerns about Thailand being used as a transshipment hub for goods headed to the US from third countries, primarily China. The government expects exports to continue growing at over 11% annually, up from a previous forecast of 8%, driven by rising demand for technology and AI-related products.

Over the first seven months of 2026, exports have risen by 18.2% year-on-year, while outbound shipments increased by 12.9% for the entire year. Shipments to the United States, Thailand's largest market, jumped 45.3% in July compared to the previous year, while shipments to China grew by 15.2%. The Ministry of Industry reported that Thailand's manufacturing production index also rose 0.46% in July, surpassing the 1.0% year-on-year drop expected by analysts.

The ministry anticipates factory output to increase by 0.25% in 2026, falling short of previous forecasts of 1.0% to 2.0%.