Russia unable to mount rapid breakthrough even if Kostiantynivka falls — ISW

Russian forces will not be able to rapidly penetrate Ukraine's defenses or seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast, even if they fully control Kostyantynivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts from ISW maintain that significant Russian tactical advances in and around Kostyantynivka do not constitute the prerequisites for a swift operational breakthrough across the rest of Ukraine's fortified belt or the complete occupation of Donetsk Oblast, even if the city is entirely captured.

Despite Russian troops continuing to infiltrate Kostyantynivka and its surrounding areas using small infantry fireteams, the main Russian forces have yet to enter the larger portion of the city to solidify and strengthen these positions. Ukrainian forces continue to hold defensive positions in the northern and northwestern sectors of Kostyantynivka, while those in the southeastern sector have retreated to the eastern side of the Kryvyi Torets River.

Ukrainian fighters maintain a presence in the central and southeastern quarters of the city, while Russian troops have infiltrated areas north and southwest of Kostyantynivka, likely attempting to circumvent Ukrainian fortifications. ISW maintains that the Russian government has consistently presented the capture of Kostyantynivka as a crucial stepping stone for advancing towards the Slovyansk–Druzhkivka–Kramatorsk urban complex and the complete occupation of Donetsk Oblast.

Initial reports from May 2026 indicated that Russian military commanders persuaded President Vladimir Putin that invading forces could entirely capture the Donbas region by autumn 2026, a timeline that has since been pushed back to the end of the year. On July 3, Putin gathered with Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and other senior commanders, publicly declaring the capture of Kostyantynivka, the complete liberation of Luhansk Oblast, and significant advances in Donetsk Oblast.

On August 5, Roman Pohorilyi, founder of DeepState and battlefield analyst for Radio NV, warned that Ukrainian Defense Forces were losing ground in Kostyantynivka, stating that defensive pressures were spreading across the wider Kramatorsk–Slovyansk urban area.