Russia plans to mobilize 600k troops across 2026–2027

Russian authorities are set to initiate a massive mobilization of 600,000 troops between 2026 and 2027, according to Ukrainian intelligence agencies. The decision comes after Russia suffered significant military losses and a sharp decline in voluntary enlistments. In the first half of 2026 alone, Russia reported around 240,000 military casualties, with approximately 140,000 of those considered irrecoverable. Meanwhile, only 232,000 recruits signed up for military service during the same period.

The mobilization plan, devised by Russia's General Staff, aims to replenish combat units in Ukraine and bolster understaffed formations. The country is also adjusting its domestic laws and cracking down on military registration records. Moscow is even considering enlisting some female prisoners and individuals with criminal backgrounds. Mandatory military service training periods range from 15 to 60 days, depending on the individual's prior experience. Some personnel may receive training in Belarus.

Ukrainian intelligence suggests that the mobilization is driven by a combination of depleted enlistment interest and public frustration with the ongoing conflict. Certain regions, such as Oryol, Vladimir, and Dagestan, are facing particularly severe recruitment shortfalls, with contract rates dropping by 30% to 40% year-on-year.

In response, stricter measures against draft evasion may be implemented. These could include restrictions on international travel, credit access, real estate transactions, driving privileges, and bank accounts. Employers are encouraged to establish departments for mobilization coordination and military registration compliance.

Ukrainian analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will issue the official mobilization decree following the September State Duma elections. According to recent reports, at least 17 Russian regions have reported detentions and forced mobilizations over the past six weeks, indicating that the practice of covert mobilizations is becoming more widespread.