(LEAD) BOK lifts S. Korea's growth outlook to 3.3 pct for 2026 on strong chip exports

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has upped its growth projection for South Korea to 3.3 percent in 2026, attributing the rise to robust semiconductor exports fueled by persistent demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. This adjustment marks a 0.7 percentage-point rise from the BOK's earlier forecast of 2.6 percent, which it released in May.

The central bank has now revised its 2026 growth forecast twice since initially projecting 2 percent growth in February, making this the highest growth outlook issued by the BOK since 2021, when it anticipated 4.7 percent growth. The BOK's estimate surpasses the South Korean government's 3 percent growth projection announced last month.

Many global investment banks, such as Moody's and Morgan Stanley, have also revised their growth forecasts for the South Korean economy upwards, with Moody's predicting 3.5 percent and Morgan Stanley estimating 3.4 percent. For 2027, the BOK has projected a growth outlook of 2.9 percent, up from 2.1 percent in May. The South Korean economy expanded 1.8 percent in the first quarter, marking the strongest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when it grew by 2.2 percent.

In the second quarter, the Asia's fourth-largest economy expanded by 0.6 percent, significantly exceeding the BOK's May forecast of 0.2 percent growth. The BOK has kept its earlier forecast for consumer price inflation at 2.7 percent for 2026 and 2.3 percent for 2027.