Hormuz oil flows rising as Gulf giants’ ramp up gathers pace

Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing as oil producers in the Middle East ramp up their exports, keeping global crude prices stable. About six to eight million barrels a day are now flowing through the key oil chokepoint, according to oil traders. Flows dropped in July due to attacks on supertankers by Iran, but they remain at roughly half pre-war levels. Some estimates suggest even higher volumes, but the security situation remains volatile.

The rise in exports is driven by high tanker earnings, incentivizing shipowners to cross the strait. Tankers are performing shuttle runs, loading near the Persian Gulf and collecting cargoes outside the Gulf. Every major regional supplier except Iran is selling barrels for collection outside Hormuz.

Brent oil futures traded at around US$88 a barrel on Thursday, down significantly from previous weeks. The region's top producer, Saudi Arabia, had the most tankers at its export installations recently, while Iraq's loading activity briefly surpassed pre-war rates. Smaller producers like Qatar and Kuwait are also increasing exports, adding to the momentum.

However, not all exports from the Persian Gulf have reached their destination yet, as they need to be transferred onto waiting vessels near Omani or UAE ports. The US-imposed blockade on Iran also prevents its exports. The focus now is on boosting exports of fuels like diesel and jet fuel, with about 1.6 million barrels a day of refining capacity still offline.