Hormuz oil flows rise as Gulf producers boost volumes, keeping prices in check

Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have increased to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, keeping global crude prices in check, according to estimates from oil traders. The Strait of Hormuz, the key oil chokepoint, is now seeing about six to eight million barrels being shipped daily. This is higher than the roughly half pre-war levels seen in July when Iran launched attacks on supertankers, raising risks to navigation.

Iran is not among the major regional suppliers selling barrels for collection outside the strait. Despite the ongoing security situation, producers across the Middle East are boosting exports. A batch of tankers are performing shuttle runs, loading barrels just outside the Persian Gulf and collecting them from waiting tankers that avoid the strait itself.

Higher dark flows, or covert movements, from specialized shippers and ship-to-ship transfers show producers and shippers adapting to the conflict in the Mideast. This could help moderate the upside of crude oil prices even if the disruptions persist. Saudi Arabia has the highest number of tankers in its export installations in the region, while Iraq has increased loading activity at its ports, briefly exceeding pre-war rates.

Smaller producers like Qatar and Kuwait are also moving more oil. However, not all the regional exports from the Persian Gulf are heading to customers yet, as they need to be transferred onto waiting vessels near Omani or UAE ports.